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The Alternative to "Defense Wins Dollars" 2007

On the Defense Wins Dollars page we're currently tracking a system based on taking the top ten overall defensive teams as they are rated by footballoutsiders.com.  I was watching Phil Simms calling last Sunday's game and his comments during the 4th quarter got me to thinking... Has there been a paradox change in the NFL in recent years?  What if the high powered offensive teams were in fact now dictating the action?  Could it  be that if team defenses couldn't really stop offenses consistently anymore, but merely hope to slow them down?

I decided that for the remainder of the year, I'd post the footballoutsiders' top ten offenses by DVOA and test this theory.  I'm interested to see which philosophy yields better results.

Here's how it will work: Starting now, week #7, lookup the footballoutsiders list of top ten team offenses, and play them using this strategy.  You play on a top ten offense, except when they face another top ten offense, unless you can find a compelling reason to play on or against them. 

This system hasn't had enough of a sample size to be proven a winner yet, so don't go overboard betting the house on it, but it will provide some  interesting side action for football fans.

 


Offensive System 2007:

WEEK 15:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Offenses (DVOA) through Week 14
(In Order):

NEW ENGLAND
DALLAS -- Eagles
INDIANAPOLIS
GREEN BAY
JACKSONVILLE
CINCINNATI
CLEVELAND
TAMPA BAY
DENVER
PHILADELPHIA -- Cowboys
**4-4 in week #15 -- .**


WEEK 14:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Offenses (DVOA) through Week 13
(In Order):

NEW ENGLAND
DALLAS
INDIANAPOLIS
GREEN BAY
CINCINNATI
JACKSONVILLE
CLEVELAND
TAMPA BAY
PHILADELPHIA
MINNESOTA
**6-4 in week #14 -- .**

WEEK 13:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Offenses (DVOA) through Week 12
(In Order):

NEW ENGLAND
DALLAS --playing Packers
INDIANAPOLIS - playing Jags
GREEN BAY -- playing Cowboys
CINCINNATI
PHILADELPHIA
CLEVELAND
TAMPA BAY
JACKSONVILLE -- playing Colts
DENVER
**1-5 in week #13 -- with 1 game pending (Pats)**

WEEK 12:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Offenses (DVOA) through Week 11
(In Order):

NEW ENGLAND -- playing Eagles
DALLAS
INDIANAPOLIS
GREEN BAY
TAMPA BAY
PHILADELPHIA -- playing Pats
CLEVELAND
CINCINNATI
JACKSONVILLE
DENVER
**7-1 in week #12 -- .**


WEEK 11:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Offenses (DVOA) through Week 10
(In Order):

NEW ENGLAND
INDIANAPOLIS
DALLAS
GREEN BAY
PHILADELPHIA
TAMPA BAY
CINCINNATI
CLEVELAND
PITTSBURGH
JACKSONVILLE
**6-4 in week #11 -- -**

WEEK 10:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Offenses (DVOA) through Week 9
(In Order):

NEW ENGLAND -- bye week
INDIANAPOLIS
DALLAS
TAMPA BAY -- bye week
CINCINNATI
PITTSBURGH -- playing browns
CLEVELAND -- playing steelers
PHILADELPHIA
GREEN BAY
NEW ORLEANS
** 4-2 in week #10 -- .**

WEEK 9:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Offenses (DVOA) through Week 8
(In Order):

NEW ENGLAND -- playing Colts
INDIANAPOLIS -- playing Pats
DALLAS -- playing Eagles
TAMPA BAY
CINCINNATI
PHILADELPHIA -- playing Cowboys
PITTSBURGH
GREEN BAY
SAN DIEGO
DENVER
**3-3 in week #9 -- .**

WEEK 8:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Offenses (DVOA) through Week 7
(In Order):

INDIANAPOLIS
NEW ENGLAND
DALLAS -- bye week
TAMPA BAY -- playing Jax
CINCINNATI -- playing Steelers
JACKSONVILLE -- playing Buccs
NY GIANTS
PITTSBURGH -- playing Bengals
PHILADELPHIA
GREEN BAY
**5-0 in week #8 -- Nice**

WEEK 7:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Offenses (DVOA) through Week 6
(In Order):

INDIANAPOLIS - playing Jags
NEW ENGLAND
DALLAS
TAMPA BAY
JACKSONVILLE - playing Colts
NY GIANTS
CINCINNATI
PITTSBURGH
GREEN BAY - bye week
SAN DIEGO - bye week
**4-2 in week #7 -- Decent way to start**



 

Offensive System – Weekly results (2007)

 

Week #

Win

Loss

7 4 2
8 5 0
9 3 3
10 4 2
11 6 4
12 7 1
13 1 5
14 6 4
15 4 4
16    
17    
TOTAL 40 25
 

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