Sonny, the former
webmaster of spreadwinners.com and a firm believer in defense, originally
proposed this system as the 'Defensive top ten theory' and had both good years
and bad years with it. He originally used the top ten defenses as they
were listed at USA Today online. Then those were discontinued online
and it became known as the '50¢ system' and later the '75¢ system' when the cost
of the friday paper went up.
Well, we at
Micks-Picks.com thought we'd continue to carry the torch with our own twist.
The plan is to wait a few weeks for the best defenses to separate themselves,
then use the most reliable online defensive rankings that we can find. The
USA Today rankings used total yardage as their measuring stick which probably
isn't the best choice. Sonny suggested using the number of points that are
scored against a defense for every 100 yards they allow (DPP100Y), but those
aren't found easily online. We're going to use the team defensive
ranking calculated by
footballoutsiders.com - called DVOA - for team defense. It's all
outlined on their site and seems to be very in-depth.
Here's how it works:
Starting week #5, lookup the
footballoutsiders
list of top ten team defenses, and play them using this strategy.
You play on a top ten defense, except when they face another top ten defense,
unless you can find a compelling reason to play on or against them.
This system hasn't
had enough of a sample size to be proven a winner, so don't go overboard betting
the house on it, but it will provide some interesting side action for
football fans.
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Defensive System 2007:
WEEK 15:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Defenses (DVOA) through Week 14
(In Order):
PITTSBURGH
TENNESSEE
INDIANAPOLIS
BALTIMORE
SEATTLE
TAMPA BAY
NEW ENGLAND
DALLAS
SAN DIEGO
MINNESOTA
**3-6 in week #15 -- .**
WEEK 14:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Defenses (DVOA) through Week 13
(In Order):
PITTSBURGH -- pats
BALTIMORE -- colts
TENNESSEE -- chargers
SEATTLE
KANSAS CITY
INDIANAPOLIS -- ravens
DALLAS
NEW ENGLAND -- steelers
TAMPA BAY
SAN DIEGO --titans
**1-3 in week #14 -- .**
WEEK 13:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Defenses (DVOA) through Week 12
(In Order):
PITTSBURGH
NEW ENGLAND - playing Ravens
INDIANAPOLIS
BALTIMORE -- playing Pats
TENNESSEE
DALLAS
KANSAS CITY
TAMPA BAY
NEW YORK GIANTS
SEATTLE
**6-2 in week #13 -- .**
WEEK 12:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Defenses (DVOA) through Week 11
(In Order):
PITTSBURGH
TENNESSEE
NEW ENGLAND
INDIANAPOLIS
KANSAS CITY
BALTIMORE
DALLAS
TAMPA BAY
GREEN BAY
NEW YORK GIANTS
**4-6 in week #12 -- .**
WEEK 11:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Defenses (DVOA) through Week 10
(In Order):
TENNESSEE
PITTSBURGH
NEW ENGLAND
INDIANAPOLIS --playing the Chiefs
BALTIMORE
DALLAS -- playing the Redskins
KANSAS CITY -- playing the Pats
WASHINGTON -- playing the Cowboys
GREEN BAY
SEATTLE
**3-3 in week #11 -- -**
WEEK 10:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Defenses (DVOA) through Week 9
(In Order):
TENNESSEE
PITTSBURGH
NEW ENGLAND -- bye week
INDIANAPOLIS
DALLAS
BALTIMORE
WASHINGTON
KANSAS CITY
MINNESOTA
TAMPA BAY -- bye week
**1-7 in week #10 -- .**
WEEK 9:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Defenses (DVOA) through Week 8
(In Order):
TENNESSEE
PITTSBURGH -- playing Ravens
NEW ENGLAND -- playing Colts
BALTIMORE -- playing Steelers
WASHINGTON
INDIANAPOLIS -- playing Pats
DALLAS
KANSAS CITY -- playing Packers
GREEN BAY -- playing Chiefs
JACKSONVILLE
**2-2 in week #9 -- .**
WEEK 8:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Defenses (DVOA) through Week 7
(In Order):
WASHINGTON -- v. PATS
TENNESSEE
PITTSBURGH
BALTIMORE -- BYE WEEK
NEW ENGLAND -- v. SKINS
INDIANAPOLIS
DALLAS -- BYE WEEK
GREEN BAY
KANSAS CITY -- BYE WEEK
SEATTLE -- BYE WEEK
**3-1 in week #8 -- good stuff**
WEEK 7:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Defenses (DVOA) through Week 6
(In Order):
PITTSBURGH
TENNESSEE
WASHINGTON
NEW ENGLAND
BALTIMORE
GREEN BAY -- BYE WEEK
DALLAS
INDIANAPOLIS
PHILADELPHIA -- BYE WEEK
KANSAS CITY
**5-3 in week #7 -- nice**
WEEK 6:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Defenses (DVOA) through Week 5
(In Order):
TENNESSEE -- playing Buccs
PITTSBURGH -- bye
NEW ENGLAND -- playing Cowboys
WASHINGTON
BALTIMORE
DALLAS -- plying Pats
PHILADELPHIA
MINNESOTA
TAMPA BAY -- playing Titans
INDIANAPOLIS -- bye
**4-0-0 results in week #6 -- Now you're talking!**
WEEK 5:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Defenses (DVOA) through Week 4
It was recommended that we wait until this week to officially track bets until due to the need for some reliable statistics
(In Order):
PITTSBURGH -- playing Seahawks
NEW ENGLAND
TAMPA BAY -- playing Colts
MINNESOTA -- bye
SEATTLE -- playing Steelers
TENNESSEE
BALTIMORE
PHILADELPHIA --bye
INDIANAPOLIS -- playing Buccs
DALLAS
**1-3-0 results in week #5 -- Not the start we were looking for**
WEEK 4:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Defenses (DVOA) through Week 3
REMEMBER...We're not making any official bets until week 5 due to lack of statistics
(In Order):
PITTSBURGH
NEW ENGLAND
TAMPA BAY
DENVER - (v. Colts)
INDIANAPOLIS - (v. Broncos)
MINNESOTA
KANSAS CITY
BALTIMORE
DALLAS
PHILADELPHIA
**4-4-0 results in week #4**
WEEK 3:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Defenses (DVOA) through Week 2
REMEMBER...We're not making any official bets until week 5 due to lack of statistics
(In Order):
DENVER
PHILADELPHIA
WASHINGTON
PITTSBURGH
OAKLAND
NEW ENGLAND
BALTIMORE
HOUSTON
CHICAGO
MINNESOTA
**4-5-1 results in week #3 -- not as bad**
WEEK 2:
Footballoutsiders.com Top Ten Defenses (DVOA) through Week 1
We're not making any official bets until week 5 due to lack of statistics
(In Order):
PITTSBURGH
SAN DIEGO
CINCINNATI
MINNESOTA
PHILADELPHIA
DENVER
HOUSTON
INDIANAPOLIS
ARIZONA -- off, playing Seattle
SEATTLE -- off playing Arizona
**3-5 results in week #2 -- it's good that we're waiting**
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Defensive
System – Weekly results (2007) |
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Week # |
Win |
Loss |
|
2 (hypothetical) |
3 |
5 |
|
3 (hypothetical) |
4 |
5 |
|
4(hypothetical) |
4 |
4 |
|
5 |
1 |
3 |
|
6 |
4 |
0 |
|
7 |
5 |
3 |
|
8 |
3 |
1 |
|
9 |
2 |
2 |
|
10 |
1 |
7 |
|
11 |
3 |
3 |
|
12 |
4 |
6 |
|
13 |
6 |
2 |
|
14 |
1 |
3 |
|
15 |
3 |
6 |
|
16 |
|
|
|
17 |
|
|
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TOTAL |
33 |
36 |
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Spreadwinners